MacBook Neo could face price hike, analyst predicts

The MacBook Neo, by almost all accounts, is a wildly successful product, so much so that Apple quickly started to run short of the “free” binned A18 Pro chips it used in the laptop. This is great news for Apple, which has a blockbuster on its hands and a new source of revenue in the budget space. But it could be bad news for consumers who haven’t yet managed to snag a Neo.

According to the Taipei-based tech columnist Tim Culpan, writing in his Culpium newsletter this week, Apple has decided to respond to the higher-than-expected demand by doubling its Neo production plans… which might seem like a no-brainer, except that the ongoing components crisis means the new batch could be a lot more expensive for Apple than the original one. The company faces, Culpan claims, “a severe cut in gross margins amid escalating DRAM prices and a higher cost-base for the core processor.”

At the heart of the issue is that the Neo’s binned A18 Pro, a mildly defective version of the chip produced randomly as a natural byproduct of the imperfect manufacturing process, are running low, and cannot be created to order. Most of the new processors Apple will receive, Culpan explains, won’t be binned at all: rather, they’ll be fully functional A18 Pros with six operational GPUs instead of the five in the Neo’s spec.

Apple may disable one GPU chip via software, as bizarre as that sounds, in order to maintain consistency. But that won’t change the fact that these non-binned chips will cost more than the binned ones. And that’s on top of the fact that other components have also gone up in price as a result of ballooning demand for AI server hardware. Each second-batch Neo will cost significantly more to make than its first-batch equivalent, and profit margins tend to be tighter at the budget end of the market anyway. How can Apple preserve its profits?

We’ve speculated earlier that Apple may introduce the A19 Pro Neo earlier than anticipated to absorb some of the blow, but Culpan suggests a bolder option. While he’s already floated the possibility that Apple drops the $599 256GB model from sale and pushes customers to the higher-margin $699 512GB configuration, in this latest article, he goes further, arguing that this now looks more likely than ever, after Apple pulled exactly the same move with the Mac mini. The 256GB model of that device is no longer available, effectively increasing the baseline price from $599 to $799 (although at least you get twice as much storage).

It’s important to note that Culpan does not present this as something Apple is definitely planning to do, nor even that he has firm evidence that the company has discussed it. This is merely an analyst predicting what is likely, based on supply-chain pressures and recent activity with another budget Mac product. But sure, it could happen, so if you have your eye on a $599 MacBook Neo, you should grab it. Our MacBook Neo deals page is a good place to start.